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Thursday, January 17th 2019. | Template

THE TICKER

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is apparent as the 116th United States Congress convened last Thursday. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

The cool affluent won’t be advantageous a 70 percent top bordering tax bulk anytime soon.

But ascent brilliant Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s angle to ensure they do accursed the starting gun for a populist-tinged bread-and-butter agitation that will ascertain Democratic backroom for the abutting two years, at least.

The New York freshman floated the abstraction in a “60 Minutes” account that aired Sunday. She said those earning added than $10 actor a year should face a top bulk of 60 to 70 percent on that assets to advice pay for a “Green New Deal” that would annihilate deposit fuels in 12 years. She is gluttonous a bench on the House Banking Casework Committee, which oversees the cyberbanking and apartment industry.

Watch her here:

Blowback from the appropriate was fierce. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) misconstrued the angle as a broad-based tax backpack on all income:

Republicans: Let Americans accumulate added of their own hard-earned money
Democrats: Booty abroad 70% of your assets and accord it to advocate fantasy programs https://t.co/NxJPSCqvrt

— Steve Scalise (@SteveScalise) January 5, 2019

As did anti-tax lobbyist Grover Norquist, allegory it to slavery:

Slavery is aback your buyer takes 100% of your production.
Democrat congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez wants 70% (according to CNN)
What is the chat for 70% expropriation?

— Grover Norquist (@GroverNorquist) January 5, 2019

But left-leaning economists agenda the angle is hardly radical, accustomed ante that aerial — and academy — were on the books for for the top assets bracket amidst the affluent average decades of the aftermost century. And some contempo analysis (including from Nobel-winning economist Peter Diamond) argues a top bulk hardly arctic of 70 percent is optimal for the ultra-rich. (The abstraction additionally drew acclaim from at atomic one bulk on the right, with Ann Coulter  tweeting she agrees.) Julián Castro, the aloft Obama administering apartment chief moving adjoin a presidential bid, acicular to history in acknowledging Ocasio-Cortez’s abstraction during a Sunday actualization on ABC’s “This Week.”

As my aide Dave Weigel noted, Castro’s airy co-signing signals aloof how bound the tax action altercation aural the affair can bound to the left:

Not accepting a ton of absorption today, but IMO Julian Castro’s acknowledgment to a catechism about @AOC’s tax allocution was striking.

“George, there was a time in this country area the top bordering tax bulk was over 90 percent.”

and woosh goes the Overton Window. Media Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) January 6, 2019

Expect added Democratic 2020 hopefuls to go there soon, too. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), for example, has said she wants to cycle aback Republican tax cuts anesthetized in 2017. Though she has eschewed allotment a cardinal she would favor for a top bordering rate, she has acicular out it was “well aloft 50 percent” in the post-World War II era. And in her alpha bout through Iowa this weekend, she said Washington needs to embrace “big structural change” to restore bread-and-butter fairness.

The ambition for advancing Democratic leaders won’t artlessly be extracting a batter of beef from point-one-percenters. Ocasio-Cortez invoked the abstraction as a acquirement antecedent for a moonshot angle — and her party’s presidential basin will anon be abundant with others attractive to for means to pay for analogously advancing projects. (One appraisal puts a $2.8 abundance bulk tag on Sen. Kamala D. Harris’s angle to action tax credits or absolute payments to lower and middle-income families.)

The Washington Post’s Jeff Stein crunched the numbers with tax experts and begin a new bracket for those earning added than $10 actor a year would hit 16,000 households. Roughly acceleration the bulk they pay on assets over that threshold, as a 70 percent bulk would, could accomplish $720 billion over a decade. That could pay for a cardinal of advanced dream programs. From Jeff: “It could appear abutting to allotment the absoluteness of Sanders’s chargeless academy charge plan ($800 billion), armamentarium Admiral Barack Obama’s plan to get abutting to accepted baby ($75 billion over a decade), absolve added than bisected the apprentice debt in America ($1.4 trillion), awning Democratic leaders’ plan for advocacy abecedary pay and academy allotment ($100 billion), or appear abutting to allotment a $1 abundance basement plan.”

The soak-the-rich idea’s aboriginal absorption credibility to affair in which the centermost of force has already confused measurably to the left. Barely two years ago, Hillary Clinton’s belvedere alleged for arty a customs on the incomes of those earning added than $5 million, finer saddling them with a 44 percent top bordering rate. And four years afore that, afterwards acceptable a aural reelection achievement in allotment on a acceding to accession taxes on the rich, Obama active a amalgamation that aloft the top bulk from 35 percent to 39.6 percent for couples earning added than $450,000 a year. Obama adjourned that accord with a Republican Congress.

But the actuality charcoal that the Democrats’ aftermost two accepted bearers proposed tax action changes at the margins. The party’s abutting one is acceptable to alarm for a abundant bluff departure.

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Specialist Mario Picone works on the attic of the New York Banal Exchange. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

— Second thoughts on 2019 bazaar forecasts. The Bank Street Journal’s Michael Wursthorn and Akane Otani: “The market’s roller-coaster ride has prompted some Bank Street analysts to cut their 2019 forecasts, the latest assurance of anxiety as the banal balderdash bazaar approaches its 10th year. Above indexes rallied Friday afterwards a stronger-than-expected jobs abode added investors’ aplomb in the U.S. economy, and Federal Reserve Administrator Jerome Powell appropriate the axial coffer would be adjustable with its action plans.

“Still, a barbarous December selloff and abiding worries about the bloom of the all-around abridgement accept kept above indexes able-bodied beneath their records. Investors’ aplomb additionally took a hit afterwards Apple Inc. backward Wednesday bargain its anniversary acquirement anticipation for the aboriginal time in added than 15 years due to slowing iPhone sales in China, adopting anxieties that added companies could chase clothing in a nod to the ramifications of advancing barter tensions amid the U.S. and China.”

Nervous investors seek ambush in yen and gold. WSJ’s Ira Iosebashvili: “Uneven bread-and-butter abstracts and animation in stocks accept accelerated a billow into assets perceived as about safe, highlighting the anxiety acquainted by abounding investors at the alpha of 2019. The Japanese yen is up about 5% adjoin the dollar back markets began sliding at the end of aftermost year’s third quarter. That move best up acceleration afterwards weaker-than-expected accomplishment abstracts and a sales admonishing from Apple Inc. aftermost anniversary bolstered fears of a all-around slowdown.

“Other alleged anchorage assets are additionally rising. Gold prices accept adequate about 7% in that aeon and angle abreast their accomplished akin in about bisected a year, and gold-focused funds accept alveolate inflows in 12 of the accomplished 13 weeks … The ample about-face adjoin havens suggests that investors are now added acquisitive to alter their backing in the face of contempo bazaar swings.”

America is a apple baton … in volatility. Bloomberg’s Justina Lee: “As the world’s better and centermost disinterestedness market, the U.S. tends to be the about abiding duke amid airy peers. Not anymore. The country is at the epicenter of all-around bazaar anxieties from barter to budgetary abbreviating and an bread-and-butter slowdown. The U.S. barometer of approaching volatility, the VIX, has exceeded the equivalents in Europe, Hong Kong and alike arising markets a few times over the accomplished month. This is an aberration that’s become added commonplace back the bazaar sell-off in February 2018.”

— Powell attempts a soft landing. WSJ’s Greg Ip, Nick Timiraos and Eric Moriath: “Federal Reserve officials, afterwards abyssal the U.S. abridgement through the banking crisis and its rebound, face a alpha analysis in 2019: engineering an bread-and-butter bendable landing. The axial bank’s claiming is to administer a balance in advance that keeps aggrandizement independent but avoids a recession. It was a capital affair at an anniversary bread-and-butter appointment in Atlanta this weekend that featured top accepted and aloft Fed officials. Investors will attending this anniversary to talks by Fed Administrator Jerome Powell and Carnality Administrator Richard Clarida for new clues on the officials’ thinking, as able-bodied as Wednesday’s absolution of account from the Fed’s December meeting.”

Goldman sees Fed pausing. Jan Hatzius, the firm’s arch economist, writes in a agenda this morning: “Fed admiral are acutely focused on both banking altitude and the advance outlook, at a time aback they accept the affluence to be ‘patient’ because bulk PCE aggrandizement is at 1.9% year-on-year and absurd to acceleration decidedly for at atomic the abutting several months. This implies a abeyance in the bulk backpack action until altitude accept acclimatized down, as able-bodied as a able allurement to complete market-friendly in the abreast term.”

— A majority of Britons appetite a Brexit re-do. CNBC: “More Britons appetite to abide a affiliate of the European Union than leave, according to a analysis appear on Sunday which additionally showed voters appetite to accomplish the final accommodation themselves. Britain is due leave the EU on March 29, but Prime Minister Theresa May is disturbing to get her avenue accord accustomed by parliament, aperture up huge ambiguity over whether a accord is possible, or alike whether the country will leave at all.

“The analysis by polling close YouGov showed that if a election were captivated immediately, 46 percent would vote to remain, 39 percent would vote to leave, and the blow either did not know, would not vote, or banned to acknowledgment the question. Aback the ambivalent and those who banned to acknowledgment were removed from the sample, the breach was 54-46 in favor of remaining. That is broadly in band with added acclamation in contempo months which appearance a acutely disconnected electorate, in which assessment has swung hardly appear actual in the EU.”

TRUMP TRACKER

TRADE FLY-AROUND:

President Trump with Chinese Admiral Xi Jinping in November.(AFP/Fred Dufour)

— Barter talks with China assuredly get underway. CNN’s Donna Borak: “Trump claims his administering is ‘doing actual able-bodied in negotiations with China,’ but the US aggregation branch to Beijing this anniversary is starting about from scratch. While China has fabricated some preemptive concessions in the weeks back Trump met with his analogue Xi Jinping in Argentina, including blurred auto tariffs and restarting purchases of American soybeans, little accurate advance has been fabricated adjoin developing a absolute barter acceding amid Beijing and Washington.

“Instead, the affair of deputy-level negotiators will accord anniversary ancillary a adventitious to booty banal and serve as a litmus analysis for whether a accord can be accomplished afore March 1, aback Trump has threatened to appoint addition annular of tariffs and to accession duties on imports to 25% from 10%. ‘Next week’s negotiations are important because they will authorize expectations,’ said Myron Brilliant, controlling carnality admiral and arch of all-embracing diplomacy at the US Chamber of Commerce. ‘However, we shouldn’t apprehend above breakthroughs abutting week.'”

Positive sign? Liu He joins talks. Bloomberg: “Chinese Carnality Premier Liu He accidentally abounding the aboriginal day of talks aimed at absolute the barter altercation amid the world’s two better economies, according to bodies accustomed with the bulk and a photo apparent by Bloomberg. Liu is the top bread-and-butter adviser to Chinese Admiral Xi Jinping, who led antecedent negotiations in Washington that produced a accord that Admiral Donald Trump afresh repudiated. China had ahead said the talks would be led by a lower-ranking official from the Ministry of Commerce.”

Chinese abridgement slows as barter talks loom. WSJ’s Lingling Wei: “China’s abridgement is slowing faster than accepted as Beijing this anniversary active into a acute new annular of negotiations with the U.S. over trade. For the accomplished brace of months, chief Chinese admiral accept approved to comedy bottomward the appulse of U.S.-China barter tensions on the world’s second-largest economy, cogent the accessible the battle is accomplishing little added than affliction the nation’s banal indexes, authoritative it a acceptable time to buy China again. …

“[But] the Trump administration’s barter offensive, say the bodies and business executives, is hitting China’s export-oriented accomplishment area abnormally hard, abbreviation new orders for business and banishment factories to cut assembly and adjournment decisions on advance and hiring.”

U.S. has advantage in barter talks, Trump says. Alan Rappeport and Jim Tankersley at the New York Times: “Trump is cheerleading his way accomplished the bread-and-butter admonishing signs that accept ashamed banking markets and debilitated economists, insisting that the United States has an advantage in a acute aboriginal annular of barter negotiations alpha on Monday in Beijing. It helps his case that the Labor Department appear a jobs abode for December that soared accomplished expectations.

“‘China’s not accomplishing actual able-bodied now,’ Mr. Trump said in a account appointment at the White House, hours afterwards the abode came out on Friday. ‘It puts us in a actual able position. We are accomplishing actual well.’ Mr. Trump is actual about China’s economy, which by several measures appears to be hobbled by American tariffs on $250 billion account of Chinese imports. But the president’s aplomb about the calm abridgement abundantly ignores what others see as looming threats.”

Meet in the middle? Accustomed the stakes, Horizon Investment’s Greg Valliere predicts progress. “Both abandon accept acute affidavit to act – China absolutely acutely is adversity from an bread-and-butter slowdown, and Donald Trump acutely fears that a afraid banal bazaar could imperil his re-election,” he writes in his morning note. “Thus we accept there will be a effective account tomorrow, with hints that high-level admiral will accommodated afterwards this ages to bang out an acceding in principle.”

— Tariffs, not jobs for the automated U.S. Peter S. Goodman at the NYT: “Plants in every administering shut bottomward and confused their operations to Mexico, accedence to the adamant burden to cut costs in an age of globalization. Not EBW Electronics. As the decades passed, the family-owned business backward put, on the eastern bend of Lake Michigan, churning out lights for the auto industry. But now, the company’s administering is cautiously answer the achievability of affective its assembly to Mexico to escape the tariffs that Admiral Trump has put on alien components, his primary weapons in a barter war waged in the name of bringing jobs home to America.

“‘It’s killing us,’ said the administrator of the company, Pat LeBlanc, 63, a Republican who voted for Mr. Trump. He now expects the president’s tariffs will chop his 2019 profits in half. ‘I aloof feel so betrayed. If we abort because the aggregation is actuality afflicted by the government, that aloof makes me sick.’ Beyond the automated United States, including in the acute political battlefield accompaniment of Michigan, such complaints are accumulative as the barter war disrupts branch operations that depend on alien parts.”

MELTDOWN WATCH:

“AP FACT CHECK: Trump’s super-talkative, fact-busting week.” AP’s Calvin Woodward and Hope Yen. “How the bound bank is battle Trump in.” NYT’s Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Peter Baker. “Pelosi tamps bottomward allocution of impeachment.” The Post’s Brian Fung.  POCKET CHANGE

The Fortnite berth is apparent at E3, the world’s better video bold industry assemblage in Los Angeles in June. (Reuters/Mike Blake)

— On the advanced curve of the app wars. The Post’s Brian Fung: “A growing cardinal of software companies are attractive to bypass the ascendant app abundance gatekeepers at Apple and Google — affairs their casework anon to consumers and undercutting the tech giants that for years accept controlled how best of iPhone and Android users discover, download and pay for their apps.

“The defection is actuality led by companies such as Netflix, which became the latest close to cut off a advantageous accord for Apple aback it accepted that new barter will no best be able to pay their account cable fees through iTunes. Instead, subscribers are actuality redirected to accomplish payments on Netflix’s own website. … Netflix’s advertisement could save it hundreds of millions of dollars, and is potentially adverse for Apple.”

— Aback box food use a tax loophole, baby towns buck the brunt. NYT’s Patricia Cohen: “With amazing ambit and rapidity, big-box retailers and accumulated giants are application an advancing acknowledged tactic to compress their acreage tax bills, a action that is costing bounded governments and academy districts about the country hundreds of millions of dollars in absent revenue. These businesses — abounding of them brick-and-mortar food like Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Kohl’s, Menards and Walgreens that accept faced angry online antagonism — advance that no bulk how admired a advancing abundance is to its accepted owner, these warehouse-type structures are not account abundant to anyone else.

“So the best way to adjudge their property, they argue in their tax appeals, is to attending at the auction prices on the accessible bazaar of abandoned or aforetime abandoned shells in added places. As shuttered food advance beyond the landscape, their altercation has resonated. To municipalities, these appeals bulk to a adopted tax contrivance that allows corporations to convulse out of advantageous their fair share.”

— Accessible defalcation looms over Sears. Bloomberg News’s Eliza Ronalds-Hannon, Lauren Coleman-Lochner, Nabila Ahmed, Lily Katz and Tiffany Kary: “Sears Backing Corp. is advancing a abeyant wind bottomward afterwards Administrator Eddie Lampert’s bid to buy several hundred food out of defalcation fell abbreviate of bankers’ abilities … The iconic banker started laying the background for a defalcation afterwards affairs Friday in which its admiral advised the claim of a $4.4 billion bid by Lampert’s barrier armamentarium to buy Sears as a activity affair … If the 125-year-old banker does die in defalcation — like Toys “R” Us in 2018, and Borders Group Inc. in 2011 — it would mark the better accident yet in the retail apocalypse prompted by a about-face to online shopping.”

MONEY ON THE HILL

— Abeyance drags on with no end in sight. The Post’s Bob Costa and co.: “Trump administering admiral began demography amazing accomplish to accommodate the fallout from the fractional federal government abeyance Sunday, as the account impasse amid the admiral and aldermanic Democrats showed no signs of advancing a breakthrough.

“As agencies approved to accord with bottomward problems beyond the federal bureaucracy, acting White House account administrator Russell T. Vought sent aldermanic leaders a letter detailing the administration’s latest action to end the shutdown. It accepted $5.7 billion ‘for architecture of a animate barrier for the Southwest border’ but additionally proposed ‘an added $800 actor to abode burning altruistic needs’ and unaccompanied casual accouchement accession at the border…

“A Democratic official accustomed with the affair said no advance was fabricated over the weekend, in ample allotment because the White House hasn’t been accessible about how the money would be acclimated or why the appeal is for so abundant added than the administering approved alone a few months ago.”

House Democrats adapt battery of Trump investigations Trump Hotel, taxes, chiffonier associates are all targets. Politico DAYBOOK

COMING SOON:

The Bipartisan Action Centermost hosts a appointment alarm on the recently-passed privacy, abstracts and affirmation legislation on Monday. The Brookings Institution hosts the accident “Ten years later: Lessons from the 2008 banking crisis” on Thursday in Washington. The Carnegie Endowment for All-embracing Peace hosts an alike assessing Japan’s new civic aegis affairs on Friday in Washington. The Brookings Institution hosts a altercation to analyze how China and the U.S. are advancing bogus intelligence on Jan. 14 in Washington.  The Bipartisan Action Centermost hosts a altercation of the book “A Bright Future: How Some Countries Accept Solved Climate Change and the Blow Can Follow” in Washington on Jan. 14 in Washington. The Heritage Foundation hosts an accident on “the architecture and bread-and-butter freedom” on Jan. 15 in Washington.  THE FUNNIES

— From The New Yorker’s Mick Stevens, about 1998:

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A animation by Mick Stevens, from 1998. #TNYcartoons

A column aggregate by The New Yorker Cartoons (@newyorkercartoons) on Jan 1, 2019 at 1:17pm PST

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